US initial unemployment claims increased by 21,000 to 211,000 in the week ended March 4, Labor Department data showed. Mike McKee takes a look at the numbers on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”
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Transcript
Two hundred and eleven thousand so Tom’s week after week after week was just interrupted by a change in the direction and the amount for jobless claims 211 000 is a pretty low number but it is a significant change from the trend that we have been on which was uh week after
Week after week of numbers coming in below estimates I think 13 of the last 14 weeks we had jobless claims below the estimate well the estimate was 195. so we’re significantly uh above that at this point now we’re looking to see uh if last week I’m looking to see if last
Week was revised at all and revised higher and I still don’t have that number there we go the continuing claims continuing claims we should mention this because this is also a change continuing claims going up one million seven hundred eighteen thousand from one million six hundred and forty nine
Thousand so we are seeing people uh taking longer perhaps to get jobs and that’s going to be this is going to be the kind of trend that the fed and everybody who has been predicting a Slowdown in the labor markets is going to be looking at now uh what we don’t
Know of course is whether this is going to continue um but we are anticipating that it should it was an increase to 211 by the way was an increase of 21 000 they uh did not revise they did not revise okay okay look Mike at the at the trend here in
The 211 I’m going to say I’m I’m doing this real quickly I can’t be like McKee folks it gets me back to the end of December 2022 off of the set of 678 data points is well can you figure out state by state where that jump came from from
190 ish out to 210. you can on a delayed basis is the is the problem is we don’t get um that state or a little State jump it out of whack well uh no because you’re looking at total claims here but uh you’re so you’re going to be looking at
States that have the largest working age population unless there were a strike or some something in a plant in a company so the week of February 18th the prior week there was New Jersey in Rhode Island with uh two and a half thousand it looks like uh those were the highest
I’m sorry uninsured employment rates the largest increases in claims for the week ending February 25th which was last week Massachusetts up 4 000 uh Rhode Island up uh 1200 in New Jersey up 742 000. so yeah you get a reaction interestingly enough California was down 2 800 and Kentucky was down
6164. Ohio down Michigan down so the biggest states we’re seeing declines uh kind of hard to put this all in perspective because you would expect if we were seeing a lot of tech jobs to go away that California would be leading the pack and they are not at this point
Although we do still have that whole thing about getting uh Severance paying keeping you out of the out of the claims Market
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CHECK THIS OUT FOR FEB CPI + PPI REPORTS OF CHINA CAME OUT TODAY MEANS —— > ITS DEFLATIONARY ECONOMIC TRAP IS GETTING MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE SEVERE THAN EVER BEFORE MEANS —— > US + EUROPE CORE INFLATION IS GOING UP AND UP!!!!!:)
20:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.5% 0.2% 0.8%
20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Feb) -1.4% -1.3% -0.8%
20:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.0% 1.9% 2.1%
Wal Marts around the country are closing because of looting and shoplifting and no arrests of criminals. HAHAHAHA. Well, stop voting Democrat! Black neighborhoods, stop voting Democrat!
AGAIN AND AGAIN CHINA GDP GROWTH FOR 2023YR WILL BE +3% +/- 0.5% AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!::) OR ANY NUMBERS ABOVE THAT MEANS CHINA(+H.K) DEBT PROBLEMS ARE EVEN BECOMING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE SERIOUS THAN EVER BEFORE SINCE ITS 1970S THAT MEANS ———— > CHINA HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR + REPO RATE SUPER FASTER THAN EVER TO BLOCK FURTHER COLLAPSING OF ITS ECONOMIC SYSTEM FUNDAMENTALLY OR ——– > NEVER EVER GET OUT OF ITS OWN DEFLATIONARY ECONOMIC TRAP THAT IS 1+1= 2 MATH PROBLEM TO FIGURE OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THAT AGAIN AND AGAIN US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE INTO THE RANGE OF +7% – +8% THIS YEAR MEANS ——- > THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE AND MORE SELLING OFF AND OFF AND OFF OF US T – DEBTS BY THE LARGEST FOREIGN US DEBT HOLDERS ESP JAPAN + CHINA MEANS —— > FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER US$ WEAKNESS GOING ON AND ON AND ON ——– > THAT IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST IMPETUS TO PUSH UP AND UP AND UP OF THE COMMODITY PRICES ESP GOLD + ENERGY!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AND YEN WILL BE GOING STRONGER THAN US$ IN ANYWAY INTO MANY YEARS TO COME TO THE RANGE OF +68 YEN +/- IN COMING YEARS!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THE FED CHAIR POWELL SAID DURING HIS HEARINGS ——- > HE SAID VERY VERY CLEARLY ABOUT THE FED'S SACROSANCTITY ECONOMIC TARGETS THAT WERE +2% INFLATION = THE NEUTRAL INFLATION RATE + FULL EMPLOYMENT RATE = +3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MEANS ———- > 1. THERE WILL BE WEAK US$ GOING ON AND ON AND FOR MANY YEARS TO COME VS 2 HIGHER AND HIGHER THE COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE VS 3 FURTHER AND FURTHER INTEREST RATE HIKING TO BRING THE INFLATION TO +2% VS 4 FURTHER AND FURTHER US DEBT OVERSEAS HOLDERS ARE SELLING OFF AND OFF AND OFF ESP BY JAPAN + CHINA < ——– AGAIN UNDER CURRENT SITUATION MORE AND MORE UPSIDE OF STOCKS BONDS MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE HOUSEHOLD DEBT PROBLEMS ARE GOING GOING ON AND ON NOW AGAINST THEIR FALLING PRICES OF REAL ESTATE SECTORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
HOW COME PEOPLE NEVER TRUST THE FED CHAIR POWELL??? MEANS ——– > HE MADE HIMSELF VERY CLEARLY THAT THE FED WILL BRING DOWN THE INFALTION RATE TO +2% WHILE IT STILL PURSUES FULL EMPLOYMENT RATE% MEANS DO THE MATH ——– > US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE INTO +7% – +8% THIS YEAR OR THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE DEBT PROBLEMS GOING TO HURRICANE THE ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH NOW THE MOST TERRIBLE PROBLEM IS IN THE ECONOMY IS MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING DEBT PROBLEMS AGAINST STILL TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO EXPENSIVE DEBT(= BONDS) BASED ON STILL TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOWEVER MORE AND MORE UPSIDE OF STOCKS + BONDS PRICES MEANS ——– > THERE ARE MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS INCREASING IN THE ECONOMY ESP HOUSEHOLDS THAT NOW FOR EXAMPLE) US HOUSEHOLD DEBT IS + 17T$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHINA HOUSEHOLD DEBT IS + 12T$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Chinese City Backs Return of Lockdowns for Severe Flu Outbreaks By Bloomberg News
March 9, 2023, 12:42 PM GMT+8 With China seeing a resurgence of flu following its reopening Covid outbreak, the city of Xi’an devised a response plan that allows the government to lock down areas of the city if flareups are severe. Officials would also be able to shut schools, entertainment venues and businesses if community spread reaches an acute level.
STOCK + BOND MARKETS ESP IN USA + EUROPE + CHINA ARE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH BIASED THAT ———- > MORE PEOPLE APPLIED JOBLESS CLAIMS BENEFITS ——— > MEANS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE LOSING JOBS ——– > MEANS MORE AND MORE SOCIAL SPENDING IS NECESSARY MEANS ———– > MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS ARE MOUNTING AND MOUNTING IN GOVERNMENT + HOUSEHOLDS ——— > BUT STOCK + BOND PRCIES ARE GOING UP AND UP??? AGAINST FURTHER AND FURTHER LOSS OF CORPORATE EARNINGS??? ———- > BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE EXPECTING INTEREST RATE – CUT AGAIN AND AGAIN WHILE MORE AND MORE AND MORE SPENDING FOR UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE??? —— > MEANS WHO PAYS THE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE MOUNTING DEBT ESP IN USA CHINA EUROPE ECONOMIES?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And stocks are up… Somehow markets believe bad numbers will make fed pivot. But it's a pipe dream cause now it's a new situation – inflation. Lower rates and QE when inflation is insane cause it's the same medicine brought us here.