Rebecca Patterson, Former Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist & Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist walk through the week in the markers and discuss the likelihood of a soft landing or a no-landing.
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Transcript
Let me start with you. What do you think the market’s made of all the conflicting information this week? Yeah. Thanks, David. Look, it was almost like a tale of two markets, at least for the first half of the week. Certainly when we got both the CPI and
PPA data, as you noted, yes, it did come down from the prior month, but it also remains pretty elevated. Inflation is sticky across the board, both headline and core inflation probably not coming down as much as investors would have liked to see. But, you know, equity markets actually
Took this somewhat with a grain of salt. In fact, maybe focusing a little bit more on that better retail sales number. Jobless claims still were very low this week, but bond markets, on the other hand, they had been pricing in this hotter than expected inflation pretty much all week.
We saw yields move up the 10 year and a two year or higher this week, almost, you know, between 10 and 15 basis points. So a pretty substantial move in one week. And of course, we saw Fed funds futures. So market expectations of Fed rate hikes. Those started to creep higher as well.
So prior to Tuesday’s inflation reading, a lot of market participants thought maybe to 25 basis point rate hikes in the March and May meetings. Now we are seeing an increased probability of a third rate hike in June of 25 basis points as well. That would bring us to a terminal rate
Of about five and a half percent. So clearly bond markets are starting to price in a Fed that could be higher for longer for some time equity markets by the end of the week, they started to catch on as well.
Perhaps that message was reinforced by some of the Fed speakers we heard on Thursday afternoon who even indicated a 50 basis point rate hike, maybe still on the table. But net net, we’d say after a pretty good start to the year, both equity and bond markets may start to see a bit more
Volatility as we see inflation stick. You’re a fed not done and of course, an economy that’s trying to get through it all. Rebecca, what do you say? I mean, where are we in the terminal, right? How much of what we’re seeing in
Equities is really driven by the discounting of the value of future earnings. So I think the rise in the discount rate, discounted cash flows, definitely part of the drag on stocks later in the week. This week, both the data, the hot
Economy, plus the very explicit language from the Fed speakers that it is going to be higher for longer. That was a big part of it. And then if the Fed is really going to get to its goal, 2 percent inflation,
It’s going to need to cool down the economy enough to reduce that wage inflation, which means we’re also going to be looking at softer earnings ahead. So I think you’re going to get one or the other or a combination of both in the months ahead. And that is the downside risk for
Stocks. Rebecca, I’m curious, what do you make of this talk? And part of Wall Street that there may be no landing, not hard, not soft, that we may actually just tolerate a higher level of inflation for longer and that try to get all the way down.
What do you make of that? Is there any plausibility to that? Almost zero in my mind. I mean, the idea that the Fed is going to tolerate inflation being significantly higher than target for a prolonged period, putting its own credibility at risk makes zero sense to
Me. I think the Fed is going to keep tightening until it’s confident that inflation is going to get to target. But even more importantly, the market’s still pricing in rate cuts in 2024 and beyond. And the Fed is not going to be looking
At that until inflation is below target and or the economy has cooled to a degree that the unemployment rate is significantly higher for those things to happen. You’re going to have a lot of economic slowdown, which obviously is going to feed through into earnings.
Well, I must say, I don’t see much evidence of an economic slowdown yet. If you look at those retail sales numbers, you look at the labor market, it seems to be really, really tight to this day. So are we close to economic slowdown? Yeah.
You know, look, with an unemployment rate at three point four percent, that’s a multi decade low in a recession or even an economic downturn is clearly not imminent. But keep in mind, the labor market historically has been a lagging indicator.
And in fact, when you look at some of the leading indicators of the economy, whether it’s what we got this morning, conference board leading economic indicators, which were negative for the sixth month in a row, or if you look at that yield curve, which has been inverted since mid July, even things
Like, I assume on the manufacturing side, clearly. But even services trending lower. Those are more leading indicators of the economy and of course, the big one. If the Fed is going to continue two to three more rate hikes, that all has a lag impact on economic growth.
And so, yes, the labor market in January gained 500000 plus jobs. But the question you have to ask yourself is, will that pace of gains be maintained? Can it be maintained over the next, you know, call it six to twelve months, in our view?
We’re probably going to get a softening both in the unemployment rate and those job gains. But importantly for the Fed will probably also see a softening in wage growth as well. That’s really where they are looking to for inflation to come down that non
Housing services, inflation they’ve been referencing for the last few months. Now they’re waiting for wage gains. To soften and they’ll continue until they see that likely. And if I can just jump in, Mona. When I look at what. What are we going to see in the labor markets?
One area that I think gets overlooked a bit is the small business segment. You know, the tech sector, big headlines, but it’s 2 percent of the labor force service sector and a lot of those are small businesses. If you just take hospitality and health care, just those two.
Twenty six percent of the labor force and the small businesses in the service sector, businesses say they still can’t get enough workers. So I think the wage pressure is there for the short term, although I agree with you. Medium term, I think we will see some
Deflating. The other thing that I’m watching really carefully is household debt. And one thing that came out this week from the Federal Reserve was a report on its Q4 fourth quarter household debt. We had the biggest nominal increase in 20 years.
That’s both mortgages and credit cards and credit cards to me as the wily coyote moment right now. Investors have run down their savings. They’re still spending. They’re supporting those retail sales by using credit. But that credit debt is quickly rising.
And at some point the rates plus the reduction in incomes as jobs start to dissipate a little bit. That’s going to cause us to fall off the cliff or maybe I should say blow up the balloon. Yeah. No, that’s a great point.
And look, the consumer drives the economy and those credit card numbers are ones to watch because, yes, we’ve had an excessive savings coming out of the pandemic. But we’re seeing that slowly being drawn down. And of course, the next shoe to drop
Will be can consumers pay off these credit card bills that they’re accumulating? Also, keep in mind, and this is just anecdotal, but the tech layoffs we’ve been seeing, you look, technology is a small part of the overall labor economy, but a lot of those have not flown
Through yet into jobless claims because, of course, their severance packages. There is a delay in when you actually file the claims, et cetera. So we may start seeing somewhat of a pickup even from the layoff announcements we’ve seen thus far.
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AGAIN AND AGIAN BASED ON MORE THAN +51.6% PROBABILITY ———— > WE MAY SEE A REAL DEFAULT OF US DEBT THIS TIME AND THAT'S OKAY THAT IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——— > + OF COURSE THAT WILL BE MUCH BETTER FOR 'MZ' GENERATION INTO THE COMING FUTURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN THAT'S OKAY ———– > WE MAY SEE A REAL NATIONAL DEFAULT (= US T- BONDS) BUT AGAIN IT'S NOT THE END OF THE WORLD, THAT'S OK TO GO FROM THERE THROUGH SOME SORTS OF PAINFUL TIME BUT WE MUST CLEAN THE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT PROBLEMS = 31.5T$ + 8.9T$ = 40.4T$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ————- AGAIN AND AGAIN WHO CAN BUY THE TREMENDOUS DEBT? NOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGIAN JAPAN + CHINA + OTHER BIG HOLDERS OF US + EUROPE BONDS = ( T- DEBT + PENSION DEBT) HAVE ANY OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE SELL OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF INTO COMING MONTHS AND YEARS? BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT OF US + CHINA + EUROPE NOW INCLUDING JAPAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
This is not a debate. Soft landing is impossible.
1) We've raised rates at the fastest pace in over 40 years. 2) Our debt is magnitudes larger. 3) Balance sheets are more leveraged than they have ever been. 4) Asset prices are as high as they have ever been. 5) The CPI is higher than it has been in over 30 years. 6) Deglobalization is happening, and we can't stop it. 7) War appetite is increasing, and WW3 is on the table.
It is literally impossible to take this situation and softly land this plane. We are at 60,000 ft elevation, and the low fuel lights are flashing everywhere. If we even want to survive this landing, we must nosedive quickly and get to the ground before the engines stop running.
$$ the Iraq Wars, Afghanistan, and now Ukraine accounts for 85% of the National Debt.
All these wars cost money and it's over commodities,, oil, and farming ect…
America is 31T trillion in debt. At what point and time will our national debt BE way too much even for America? And what amount of money should the War Industry repay US taxpayers? Wall Street benefited. The Market will collapse if and when US defaults. Many companies need to pay down THE US WAR DEBT, their share for benefitting from wars. Social Security is not negotiable.
Wealthy people be like just let inflation run wild who cares if poor people can't afford milk,eggs, gas or there utility bills. I want my stocks and bonds to continue growing🤮 the Democratic party constituents are the college-educated wealthy elites and low-income fixed budget minorities 🤣 they can't make both sides happy 🤐 sorry 📉
Bitcoin 40k by eoy with no landing. Or 16k with hard landing.
5 year inflation expectations 3%+ eoy with no landing. 1.5% with hard landing.
Let's see if government and Fed can thread the needle.
No landing
Can't raise rates, Can't let inflation expectations run out of control. $32 trillion debt screaming to be inflated away. But interest payments says becareful what you wish for.
House of cards at it's peak. Running out of room to maneuver.
AGAIN AND AGAIN GOLD PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE INTO THE RANGE OF 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR + OIL PRICE IS GOING UP TO THE RANGE OF 130$ BB/LS – 140$ BB/LS ASAP AGAINST ———- > THE MOST INDEBTED CURRENCIES = US$ CHINA YUAN (+H.K$) EURO POUND BITCOIN OR ———- > THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE HIGH INFLATION HITTING THE ECONOMY ESP US CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
IT'S TIME TO PAY THE PRICE FOR YOUR TREMENDOUS DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AGAIN WE HAVE TO LET MARKET DECIDES THE MONEY PRICE = THE INTEREST RATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
P.S CHINA YUAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LINE OF CRITICAL POINT OF 7RMB BEFORE END OF 1ST HALF OF 2023YR AGAINST US$ BECAUSE THE PBCO CANNOT HIKE ITS LPR BUT TO PUMP MORE AND MORE AND MORE ITS TRASH RMB INTO THE ECONOMY TO DEAL WITH ITS OWN HUGE DEFLATIONARY STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN ONLY SAFE HAVEN ASSETS ARE GOLD + ENERGY BECAUSE IN ESSENCE YOU HAVE TO HAVE RESERVE CURRENCY + ENERGY!!!!!!!!!!! AND YEN HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO APPRECIATE AGAINST US$ CHINA YUAN (+H.K$) POUND EURO INTO +68YEN IF THE BOJ DOES ACTION BEFORE THE END OF 1ST HALF OF 2023YR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———– IN CASE OF YEN AGAIN TIMING IS EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
NOW IN MARCH 22ND THE FED'S FOMC MEETING ——— > MOST LIKELY IT WILL HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE BY 50BP = 0.5% HOWEVER UNDER CURRENT TREMENDOUS GIGANTIC DEBT PROBLEMS OF US ECONOMY = 31,5T$ + 8.9T$ = 40.4T$ <———– HAS ANY MEANING TO QUELL THE SUPER STAGFLATION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ECONOMY?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——— > NOTHING BECAUSE ALREADY TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE TO FIX THE DEBT PROBLEM IN US ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
IN FACT IT IS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE TO FIX THE FINANCIAL ENGINEERING PROBLEMS = EARNING VS SPENDING MEANS TREMENDOUS CREDIT PROBLEMS SIMPLY ' THE DEBT PROBLEMS' ESP IN USA CHINA EUROPE THAT ———- > THE FED THE ECB THE PBOC HAVE NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE THEIR INTEREST RATES TO DEAL WITH CONTINUOUSLY MOUNTING DEBT PROBLEMS IN THOSE ECONOMIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
MORE SPECIFIC EXAMPLE THAT YOU HATE HIGH INTEREST RATES UNDER WHATEVER REASONS LIKE GREEDY BANKS OR WHOEVER YOU BLAME ——— > YOUR FAMILY AND YOUR CONCLUSIONS ARE THAT HATE INTEREST RATE – HIKING CYCLE BECAUSE OF YOUR ASSETS ESP PROPERTY VALUES GONE MEANS ——– > YOU DON'T WANT TO HIGH INTEREST RATE NOR STOPPING FINANCIAL SUPPORT SIMULTANEOUSLY FROM YOUR NEO KEYNESIAN GOVERNMENT MEANS ——- > INEVITABLY MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT BUILDINGS THAN EVER BEFORE MEANS ———- > IN THE END YOU HAVE TO FIND SOLUTIONS TO SOLVE YOUR TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS THROUGH EXPORTING YOUR STAGFLATION IN EXCHANGE WITH CHEAP GOODS FROM CHINA EAST SOUTH ASIA INDIA EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LATIN AMERICA ETC ——- > MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE 'GLOBALIZATION' NEEDED BUT NOW IN REALITY IS DE – GLOBALIZATION HAS BEEN FULLY STARTED IN THE ECONOMY MEANS —— > EACH COUNTRIES HAVE TO DEAL WITH THEIR OWN TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS THROUGH HIKING MORE AND MORE INTEREST RATES JUST LIKE SUPER HIGH INTEREST RATES STATES LIKE TURKEY ARGENTINA VENEZUELA ETC ETC!!!!!!!!!:)
SO NOW WE ARE SEEING THE FREE FALLING AND FALLING OF YOUR CURRENCY VALUES ESP US$ CHINA YUAN(+H.K) BITCOIN POUND EURO IN REAL PURCHASING POWER AGAINST THE COMMODITY ESP GOLD + ENERGY THAT WILL BE GOING ON AND ON AND ON FOR MANY MANY YEARS TO COME UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!:!) —————- > SO HERE IS FUNDAMENTAL CONFLICT BETWEEN YOU AND YOUR GOVERNMENT THAT ——— > YOU DO NOT WANT TO SAY ' MY FAMILY AND I DO NOT NEED ANY FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM MY GOVERNMENT' BECAUSE MY COUNTRY HAS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT PROBLEM< ——- > PARADOXICALLY AND SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH YOUR BIG GOVERNMENT IS SAYING WE THE GOVERNMENT MUST HELP PEOPLE FINANCIALLY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE SUFFERING FROM DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ——— THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON UNDER THE TREMENDOUS PROBLEMS ESP USA CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
SO HERE IS FUNDAMENTAL CONFLICT BETWEEN YOU AND YOUR GOVERNMENT THAT ——— > YOU DO NOT WANT TO SAY ' MY FAMILY AND I DO NOT NEED ANY FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM MY GOVERNMENT' BECAUSE MY COUNTRY HAS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT PROBLEM< ——- > PARADOXICALLY AND SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH YOUR BIG GOVERNMENT IS SAYING WE THE GOVERNMENT MUST HELP PEOPLE FINANCIALLY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE SUFFERING FROM DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ——— THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON UNDER THE TREMENDOUS PROBLEMS ESP USA CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
HEY FOLKS LET ME ASK YOU SIMPLE QUESTIONS THAT ———— > 1 DO YOU THINK THAT YOUR GOVERNMENT WILL STOP SPENDING MEANS STOP ITS MONETARY EASING = MORE AND MORE AND MORE SPENDING THROUGH DEBT – BUILDING? OR 2. DO YOU WANT YOUR GOVERNMENT TO STOP SUPPORTING PEOPLE FINANCIALLY? ——————– > I BELIEVE BOTH OF MY QUESTIONS ANSWERS WILL BE FROM YOU ARE 'NO' WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———- > MEANS YOU WANT TO GET MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE FINANCIAL SUPPORT UNDER WHATEVER EXCUSES FROM YOUR BIG GOVERNMENT DON'T YOU?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) <———– SEE? THIS IS MORE LIKE A PHILOSOPHICAL PROBLEM AGAINST YOUR BRAIN + SPENDING (=DEBT) THAT ———- > YOU WANT TO GET MORE AND MORE SUPPORT FROM YOUR NEO – KEYNESIAN BIG GOVERNMENTS DON'T YOU?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! INDEED IT IS HAPPENING EVERYWHERE ON THE EARTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AGREE?!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THAT NOW HIGH AND STEADY INFLATION = THE SUPER STAGFLATION FROM THE TREMENDOUS DEBT ESP FROM USA CHINA EUROPE HAS BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO THE ECONOMY THAT ———— > EX) DO THE MATH WE WILL SEE AGAIN +7% – +8% RANGE OF INFLATION IN US ECONOMY BEFORE END OF 2ND Q OF 2023YR + MORE AND MORE A DOUBLE DIGIT NUMBER OF EU INFLATION IN COMING E – QUARTERS THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) BUT CHINA IS GOING EVEN WORSE BECAUSE OF ITS OWN DEFLATIONARY SUPER TRAP STRUCTURALLY FOR MANY YEARS TO COME EVEN AFTER 2030YR, COULD BE FOREVER IN CHINA ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THAT NOW THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM'S TREMENDOUS IMBALANCE BETWEEN DEBT VS GOVERNMENT REVENUE FROM TAX AGAINST TREMENDOUS MONEY PRINTINGS = THE MMT HAS BEEN A HUGE CANCER IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEMS ESP IN USA CHINA EUROPE THAT AGAIN TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE TO FIX THE 4TH STAGE CANCER PROBLEM = THE DEBT AGAINST SPENDING FROM THE MMT < ———– DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS NOT AN EXAGGERATION AT ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN THIS IS A 1+1= 2 MATH PROBLEM THAT EVEN IF US FED HIKES ITS RATE BY +7% – +8% THIS YEAR STILL THE FED OF COURSE WILL BE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEHIND THE CURVE BECAUSE OF MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS WILL BE GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON UNDER EXCUSES OF FISCAL SUPPORT = MONETARY EASING = STIMULUS PACKAGE = THE MMT = QUANTITATIVE EASING = WHATEVER YOU NAME IT ———— > AGAIN IT IS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE TO DEAL WITH THE TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS ESP IN CHINA USA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
HOWEVER IT WILL BE OF COURSE NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL THE STAGFLATION ———– > AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES SINCE THE END OF 3RD Q OF 2022YR ———- > US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE INTO THE RANGE OF +7% – +8% THIS YEAR AND US 10YR YIELD IS GOING TO BE AT +4.5% – 5.0% BEFORE END OF 1ST HALF OF 2023YR + US 30YR MORTGAGE RATE WILL BE IN A DOUBLE DIGIT NUMBER BEFORE END OF 2023YR THAT IS NOW IN +6.39%!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THAT SINCE MARCH OF 2022YR THE US FED HAS BEEING HIKING ITS FUNDS RATE MORE THAN 475BP FROM 0%!!!!!!!!!!!! TO 4.75%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BUT FOR EXAMPLE) ——– > WHAT ABOUT GOLD + ENERGY PRICES AGAINST US$ INDEX IN REAL VALUE HAVE BEEN MOVING ON AND ON AND ON?!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ——— DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MORE AND MORE AND MORE STICKY INFLATION, IN OTHER WORDS THE STAGFLATION HAS BEEN SUPER ENTRENCHED IN THE ECONOMY THAT WILL BE GOING ON AND ON FOR MANY YEARS TO COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT ———- > AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY THAT MATH NEVER TELL YOU A LIE!!!!!!!!!:) —— > Chinese Developers Struggle to Avoid Defaults Despite State Help Builders continue to use grace periods before making payments Liquidity for most still tight as home presales weak: Nomura ByAlice Huang, Jackie Cai and Lorretta Chen February 17, 2023 at 11:19 AM GMT+8
MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND DEBT——- > China Ramps Up Economic Support With Biggest Ever Cash InjectionThe PBOC adds a net 632 billion yuan with reverse repos Beijing is determined to keep cash supply ample: analyst ByBloomberg News February 17, 2023 at 9:43 AM GMT+8Updated onFebruary 17, 2023 at 1:43 PM GMT+8
0% EXAGGERATION ——– > THE BIGGEST IMPETUS TO PUSH UP THE PRICE OF GOLD + ENERGY IS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT AS WE ARE SEEING FROM LATIN AMERICAN HIGH INFLATION COUNTRIES FOR SEVERAL DECADES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
FURTHERMORE AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES LAST YEAR THERE WILL BE OF COURSE HIGH INFLATION COMING BACK TO THE ECONOMY BECAUSE ——– > LONG STORY SHORT THE BIGGEST IMPETUS TO PUSH UP AND UP AND UP AND UP THE PRICES OF COMMODITY ESP GOLD + ENERGY IS TREMENDOUS DEBT ESP FROM USA CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
CORPORATE EARNINGS AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY SINCE THE END OF 3RD Q OF 2022YR ——- > LAST 4TH Q EARNINGS WILL BE THE BEST THROUGHOUT THIS 2023YR MEANS —– > MORE AND MORE AND DEBT PROBLEMS ARE MOUNTING AND MOUNTING IN COMING E – QUARTERS THROUGHOUT THIS YEAR AND INDEED NEXT YEAR 2024YR WILL BE EVEN TERRIBLE THAN 2023YR BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT EVERYWHERE ESP USA CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
OH REBECCA GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) I AGREE WITH YOU 10000000000% THAT ——— > THERE IS NO SUCH THING LIKE SOFT LANDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) BECAUSE US FED IS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEHIND THE CURVE MEANS WE HAVE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Transitory disinflation. Everything is fine.
There is LONG, PAINFUL suspension! Be ready. Evil POWELL and CROOKED Biden know that. Look at what they are DOING, NOT what they are telling us which is a lie. They lied us since 2021. Right!
I’m doing the sheep wool and stove tomorrow.
Reduce dat wage inflation 🤣🤣