Joyce Chang, global research chair at JPMorgan, discusses central banks’ policies, China’s reopening, and the implications for financial markets. She speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.”
Follow Bloomberg for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more: http://www.bloomberg.com
Connect with us on…
Twitter: https://twitter.com/business
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bloombergbusiness/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/quicktake/?hl=en
Transcript
You’ve been traveling all around the world tell us what you’re seeing on the ground when you’re worried about these signs of distress well you know January there was a lot of exuberance because there were surprises China’s earlier than expected reopening I thought are we getting close to the FED pause now come
February we’ve seen a reversal of a lot of this sentiment and I think the question that we’re getting is you know where’s the terminal rate going to Peak are central banks going to have to do more the fed the ECB Bank of England we’ve made more upward revisions for
What they need to do and then there’s been some disappointment on the China reopening there was this initial exuberance and particularly in commodity markets and now the question is you know how much um will come out of these twin sessions that are underway are we going to see any bigger announcements and
There’s really not the scope to do a lot of QE now I still think you’re going to have a big recovery in China’s growth going to five and a half percent but I think that you know some of the spillover that everybody thought would sort of boost overall Emerging Markets
You know hasn’t played out as much because this is much more about domestic consumption and services it’s not the usual kind of boom that we’ve seen when China has had a recovery and growth and it’s really really because even if you look at say currencies in the margin markets Asia
For example they’ve been underperforming broader EMS as this chart on the Bloomberg show so why aren’t we seeing really that lift when it comes to even currencies and other Assets in Asia that you would think are more susceptible and exposed to China I think that you know look the consumption and services part
Is much more of a domestic phenomena and so when we had recoveries in China before it’s often been on the export investment you know side of it that’s LED but that’s not the case this time I mean this is a you know Trend that China
Has been focusing on to go back to more domestic consumption domestic drivers of growth and I think that some of the expectations for what the government could announce were probably too exuberant as well so we do think that you’re going to see out of these twin sessions that are underway like you know
Some things on the framework the longer term framework that will improve but it’s probably less than what the market had hoped for so some of that exuberance has faded as we’re ending the month of February but more broadly we are still looking at that we’re just it’s much too
Early to say that the tightening cycle is over nobody is talking about an ease in the second half of the Year and that was all the talk back in January Iran when it comes to about domestic priorities Rod what do we whatever we get out of these sessions out of the
National papers Congress and we’ll be focused on that those domestic drivers for growth is it possible to gauge what they could be and how you invest along those lines because obviously you want to be on the right side of policy when it comes to investing in China well look I still
Think that you know there’s going to be a recovery and you know travel and tourism there’s still a lot of pent-up demand but you know it is something where you’re three to five and a half percent growth I mean that’s 250 basis points so I wouldn’t downplay that
There’s still momentum you know here to go but you know some of the um you know Focus that’s been on the property sector could there be more measures that are forthcoming or on household income that’s where I think that you could see some disappointment so it’s still you
Know the more domestic sectors that are going to you know benefit here but I think that you know some of the exuberance on the commodity side that’s where I think you’ve seen you know some disappointment that um everybody has sort of looked at the past Cycles the past memories of how these recoveries
Have played out and this is really different because it is much more on services and on the domestic consumption when it comes to the inflationary picture are you a buyer into the idea that we are going to see another round of inflation globally be Unleashed as a result of the channel of
Reopening is it going to be more nuanced than that but look I mean China was not synchronized with the rest of the inflation cycle around the globe I mean you actually had deflation in the PPI um you know in the fourth quarter of the year so I’m not so worried about the
High inflation in China but overall I mean what you’re seeing is you know the move in core inflation globally this is where we’ve just seen a broader move that’s taking hold with respect to the forecast that we’re doing for the developed country you know central banks
Across the board whether it is the fed the ECB or the the bank of England so I think that in China itself we’re still looking at you know two percent are you going to end at three percent but I think in other parts of the world this
Is where we’ve had you know more inflation surprises we’ve seen only partial disinflation and that’s really what the key question is right now where will the terminal rate need to be Peak Jose we’re taking all of these geopolitical risks whether it’s U.S China whether it’s a continuing war in
Ukraine as a new normal are we just being too complacent about those risks I think there is some complacency that has set in you know that because everybody has kind of gotten used to watching this in a year after the war in Ukraine who would have thought that you’d actually
Have that oil prices would be lower but I do think you’re going to see still attention focus on U.S China tensions and this is the first night of the select committee tonight um you know in the U.S Congress could you see more export restrictions some investment restrictions or some more
Sanctions on individual companies which is what we’ve been seeing rolled out but some of the bigger picture things like Taiwan I think there’s actually more caution on actually doing something this year in part because doing something in the run-up to the January 2024 elections
That may not be as eventful as a lot of people had feared a few months ago
source
The Wait for China to return to offering Cheap Shit to satisfy Consumer Demand, appears to have demonstrated that China wandered off to serve markets in the Southern Hemisphere?
As the BRICS Group outbids the Western Powers in Africa and Latin America, the sources of resources that used to provide the US Economy with resources for a low price, dwindle, while the US Economy appears to lose momentum?
Media mentions of the ability of the BRICS to appropriate the former colonial Empire's sources of products, just seem mute?
We can not mention the association of the various parts of BRICS as we attempt to threaten two of the biggest parts of the alliance.
The apparent defection of Saudi's into a group that is beginning to appear less predatory than the Western Powers, seems to attract the Latin American sources of support that kept US prices low?
Latin America and African Nations appear to be looking at the BRICS Wall and they appear to now be on the other side of that Wall?
That effect appears to be difficult to admit?
P.S READ BETWEEN THE LINES OF EX) WHAT IS GOING ON IN GOLDMAN SACHS'S RESTRUCTURING ESP AGAINST ITS RETAIL FINANCE SECTOR MEANS ———– > GS IS PREPARING FOR THE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT PROBLEMS ESP IN USA CHINA EUROPE THAT GS KNOWS VERY CLEARLY NOW WE HAVE FULLY STARTED HIGH INTEREST RATES ERA FOR MANY MANY YEARS TO COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN CHINA USA EUROPE HAVE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE AND INDEED BOJ ALSO IS LOSING THE BEST TIMING TO TWEAK ITS YCC MEANS AFTER MARCH 10TH OF THE LAST MEETING OF KIRODA THERE WILL BE A HUGE MONEY FLOW GOING OUT OF JAPAN ASSETS MARKET UNLESS THE BOJ TWEAKS ITS YCC AT LEAST!!!!!!!!!!!:)
COMING MARCH 10TH US FEB JOB REPORT WILL SHOW ANOTHER HUGE NUMBER OF ITS JOB CREATION MOSTLY FROM ITS SERVICE SECTORS THAT WILL BE + 350K – + 450K AGAIN———– > US FED'S MARCH 22ND ITS FOMC MEETING TO HIKE 50BP IS DONE DEAL THING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
SOOOOOOOOO FUNNY TO SEE EUROPEANS ESP UK PEOPLE THAT AGAIN ——- > INDEED AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES BEFORE THAT CHINA WILL NEVER REOPEN ITS BORDERS AGAIN EVEN AFTER 2030YR IT IS JUST GOING EASING ———- > CHOKING ——– > EASING ——– > CHOKING REPEATEDLY BECAUSE XI'S 3RD TERM HAS STARTED WITH TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH SOCIAL + POLITICAL + FINANCIAL ENGINEERING PROBLEMS THAT AGAIN XI'S 3RD TERM HAS NO REASONS TO REOPEN ITS BORDERS FULLY IN COMING MONTHS AND YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YOU DO WANT TO BRING DOWN INFLATION AND YOU DO WANT TO WANT TO BREAK THE DEFLATION?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???? ———– > THE ONLY WAY TO BRING DOWN THE INFLATION AND DESTROY THE DEFLATION IS TO INCREASE THE MONEY PRICE = THE INTEREST RATE HIKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT'S IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
GOLD PRICE IS NOW RECOVERING ITS 2K$ PRICE RANGE AND IT WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR AND ENERGY ESP OIL PRICE IS GETTING BACK TO ITS 130$ BB/LS – 140BB/LS RANGE THIS YEAR OR PARADOXICALLY SPEAKING THERE WILL BE NO PRICE STABILITY IN THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE STAGFLATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN ANDA AGAIN CHINA GDP GROWTH WILL BE AGAIN +3% +/- 0.5% THIS YEAR BASED ON MORE THAN +98.99% PROBABILITY DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———— > CHINA (+H.K) HAS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE AND CHINA GOVERNMENT KNOWS VERY CLEARLY THAT UNLESS REMOVE ITS TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS CHINA ECONOMY CANNOT MAKE A GROWTH IN REAL TERMS NOR CAN BE AN ECONOMIC SUPER POWER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
P.S IN COMING MARCH 10TH BOJ MEETING UNLESS THE CENTRAL BANK TWEAK ITS JGB 10YR OR SHORT TERM YIELDS AT LEAST + 25BP FROM WHERE THOSE DEBTS ARE OR THERE WILL BE A HUGE MONEY FLOW GETTING OUT OF JAPAN ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——- > AGAIN BOJ ALSO 1000000000000000% FAILED TO REVIVE ITS ECONOMY BUT JUST BUBBLING INFLATION AGAINST PEOPLE'S LIFE HOWEVER STILL KEEPING ITS MONEY PRINTING AGAIN AND AGAIN TO MAKE PEOPLE'S LIFE MORE AND MORE AND MORE MISERABLE THAN EVER BEFORE < ———– WHY IT IS DESTROYING NORMAL PEOPLE'S LIFE IN JAPAN? WHY THROUGH THE ENDLESS OF MONEY PRINTINGS??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PBOC HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR + REPO RATE THIS YEAR TO QUELL ITS DEFLATIONARY ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ———– > DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———– > AGAIN THOSE CENTRAL BANKS MONETARY POLICY AGAINST THE GREAT DEPRESSION IN 1930S DID DID DID DID DID DID DID DID DID FAIL BUT MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING NOT ONLY DEBT PROBLEMS BUT ALSO TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH SOCIAL ENGINEERING PROBLEMS AS WE CAN SEE THOSE PROBLEMS NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AM I EXAGGERATING NOW? NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 0% EXAGGERATION THAT ALL OF CENTRAL BANKS DID FAIL THEIR MONEY PRINTING POLICY AGAINST THE GREAT DEPRESSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ———— > ALL FAILED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOTHING BUT FAILED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY THROUGH MONEY PRINTINGS AND WHAT IS NEXT?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ———— > 5 FACTORS TO CAUSE THE GREAT DEPRESSION IN 1930S THAT ARE 1. RAISING FED FUNDS RATE 2. GOLD PRICE GOING UP 3. FED REDUCING EXPANDING CREDITS THROUGH MONEY SUPPLY 4. FED DID FAIL TO SUPPLY MORE AND MORE MONEY 5. WHILE BANK RUNS CONTINUES BUT THE FED DID NOT SUPPLY MORE AND MORE MONEY INTO THE BANKING SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———– LONG STORY SHORT ——— > ALL FAILED NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL FAILED TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY THROUGH MONEY PRINTINGS AND WHAT IS NEXT?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ———— > 5 FACTORS TO CAUSE THE GREAT DEPRESSION IN 1930S THAT ARE 1. RAISING FED FUNDS RATE 2. GOLD PRICE GOING UP 3. FED REDUCING EXPANDING CREDITS THROUGH MONEY SUPPLY 4. FED DID FAIL TO SUPPLY MORE AND MORE MONEY 5. WHILE BANK RUNS CONTINUES BUT THE FED DID NOT SUPPLY MORE AND MORE MONEY INTO THE BANKING SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———– LONG STORY SHORT ——— > ALL FAILED NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
ACCORDING TO TODAY'S PMI REPORT OF CHINA FOR FEB CONFIRMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ———– > NO MORE INTEREST RATE CUT NOR HOLD ITS FUNDS RATES BY THE PBOC MEANS ———- > THE PBOC ALSO HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR + REPO RATES IN COMING ECONOMIC QUARTERS THIS YEAR IN LINE WITH THE FED + THE ECB + THE BOJ + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
———- > THE PBOC ALSO HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR + REPO RATES IN COMING ECONOMIC QUARTERS THIS YEAR IN LINE WITH THE FED + THE ECB + THE BOJ + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Lol it has been 1 month, give it a quarter or two..
AGAIN CHINA USA EUROPE HAVE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE THAT AGAIN ———– > ALL OF CENTRAL BANKS TO DEAL WITH THE FINANCIAL ENGINEERING TO RECOVER FROM THE GREAT RECESSION CAUSED BY SUB PRIME MORTGAGE IN 2007YR + LEHMAN BROTHERS COLLAPSE IN 2008YR HAVE BEEN PERFECTLY FAILED THAT AGAIN NOW ALL OF CENTRAL BANKS ESP FED PBOC ECB HAVE NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO RAISE THEIR FUNDS RATES MORE AND MORE FURTHER AND FURTHER TO DEAL WITH MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE MOUNTING THEIR DEBT PROBLEMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
China Factory Activity Surges to Decade High ———- > OF COURSE YESTERDAY CHINA NATIONAL CONGRESS WAS FINISHED TO SELECT A NEW LEADERSHIP EXCEPT XI MEANS ——– > AS IT WAS EXPECTED THAT TODAY THE FEB PMI(S) WERE SURPRISINGLY GOOD NUMBER THAT MEANS AGAIN NOW THE PBOC HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR + REPO RATE IN COMING MONTHS THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!:)
20:30 CNY Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) 56.4 52.9
20:30 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.6 50.5 50.1
20:30 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 56.3 55.0 54.4
20:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6 50.2 49.2
How High for the Fed's Terminal Rate? ———- > AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY THAT US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE INTO THE RANGE OF +7% -+8% THIS YEAR HOWEVER IT WILL BE STILL TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEHIND THE CURVE TO QUELL THE STAGFLATION, SUPER ENTRENCHED IN THE ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
预计加密货币市场将在2023年迎来重要的一年，预计牛市即将到来。分析师们列举了可能有助于主导加密货币增长的各种因素，包括全球宏观经济环境、股价、通胀、美联储数据以及可能的衰退。通货膨胀加剧和对传统金融体系的信任度下降也可能起到一定作用。随时了解市场动向，并从市场动向和专家（如Eric Bo Chu）提供的信号中获益。。
In the past, the China GDP growth was propelled by investment in real estate and infrastructure. This growth model is not sustainable and resulted in massive non-profitable investment. The China real estate market is broken beyond repair. The world has seen video of ghost cities full of unoccupied buildings and rotten tail unfinished buildings.
The CCP is persisting on the broken investment growth model, instead of adapting to the consumer GDP growth model. A consumer GDP growth model would require structural reform. But structural reforms are not in Xi Jinping agenda.
so people who travel dont eat, dont shop?
if they think China will inject massive stimulus to save the US and the world economy from recession, I think they are dreaming. While the growth is slowing, China GDP still growing, inflation is relatively under control, unemployment is bit higher but manageable, so why should China inject massive stimulus?