Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard says he expects inflation to be stickier. Speaking with Mike McKee on “Bloomberg Surveillance,” Bullard also says it is too early to tell if the surprise OPEC+ production cuts will have a lasting impact.
Follow Bloomberg for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more: http://www.bloomberg.com
Connect with us on…
Twitter: https://twitter.com/business
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bloombergbusiness/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/quicktake/?hl=en
Transcript
As Roseanne Rosanna Danna used to say on Saturday Night Live it’s always something we were in the middle of a quote-unquote banking crisis and now we’ve got another oil shock uh this morning everybody waking up to headlines and say maybe we go to a hundred dollars
So as a Fed official when you see that how are you reacting well on the financial stress I think you know this is a post Dodd-Frank world and I do think that the reaction to the banking problems uh was Swift and was appropriate and both here in the U.S and overseas and
So I think you know the idea that there are macro Prudential tools that you can use in that kind of situation to calm things down that seems to have worked so far you never know if there’s further things happening but if if there are we can react with macro potential tools again
And then on the policy the monetary policy side we can still proceed to fight inflation and and get inflation down during 2023 and 2024 back to Target so I think you know this idea that you can walking chew gum at the same time you’ve got the macro Prudential tools for
Financial stress and you’ve got monetary policy to fight inflation we can do both as long as the financial stress doesn’t uh morph into something much larger and so far so good but knock on wood you’re never sure what’s going to be around the corner but does hundred dollar oil or
The idea at least of this oil shock complicates your job yeah well of course oil is always uh the oil price is is always important I would have expected a somewhat higher oil prices anyway with China coming back sooner than expected during the first half here of 2023 and with your
Obscurring recession so both of those and strong data in the U.S all of those are are pretty uh bullish factors I would say for the oil Market this was a surprise that OPEC decision but whether it will have a lasting impact I think is an open question now you had already
Moved up your estimate of where the FED funds rate needed to be to bring down inflation you were talking an effective rate of around 5.6 percent does this change that calculation at all and can you explain why you think we need to go that high to hit the terminal rate
Uh I think we’ll we will need I think we’ll need to get over five percent the committee says that uh the median person on the committee says uh a little over five percent I’m a little higher than that um I think inflation will be stickier
And uh uh you know I looked mostly at the core measures of inflation like pce core inflation or the Dallas fed trim mean which really hasn’t come down very much at all is still in the four percent range so uh you know 4.6 or something like that so
Um so we’re still talking about a lot of inflation more than double our inflation Target on that basis and uh oil prices fluctuate around it’s hard to it’s hard to track exactly some of that might feed into inflation and make our job a little bit more difficult
source
我是马来西亚人。其实现任首相在1998年是财政部长。当年索罗斯狙击马币，让马币眨值了2.5至3.8。52%. 被美元惨痛的割韭菜教训，所以想推AMF,來抗衡IMF. 前几个月前來—波，从4.2至4.8. 大概跌了13%. 下—轮的美元全世界割韭菜可能很快就到了….
其实这些都是阳谋，因为FED的Bullard一直都强调FED应该升息以抗通胀。
"…EU 🇧🇷!?! OS PARABENIZO…; TODA REDE DE COMUNICAÇÃO BLOMBERG…; REPORTAGENS, ESSENCIAL AOS NOSSOS BUSINESS…" 📉✒️📊📌📈
These are the same guys said “transitory “…. Now weaponising the $$ to support the war 😏
I don't get the hand quotes and laugh around "banking crisis."
lol treasury yields are at 3.5% rates.
This guy just wants attetion not even a vote member
We are living with a dead economy. They are all lying to us. Everything is broken!
🤷🏼♂️
def bull
Does… raising the rate stops OPEC from cutting their production?. … Whats in these people's head…
GOLD PRICE WILL BE IN 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR + OIL PRICE IS GOING TO RECOVER ITS 130$ BB/LS – 140$ BB/LS THIS YEAR < ——- NO QUESTION ABOUT IT BECAUSE ——– > (-)158BP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) —– > NOW AGAIN AND AGAIN US 10YR YIELD +3.4150% – US FED FUNDS RATE +5% = WOW!!!!!!!!!!! (-)158BP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——- > MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS ARE BEING ACCUMULATED INTO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
NOW AGAIN AND AGAIN US 10YR YIELD +3.4150% – US FED FUNDS RATE +5% = WOW!!!!!!!!!!! (-)158BP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——- > MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS ARE BEING ACCUMULATED INTO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
china is waiting to really crank up everything in 2024, when biden is going into his election
Inflation is way higher than they’re reporting. Raise rates.
Why is this guy still talking?
Stagflation..weens.
Good luck with that rate call Currently real rates are over 11% SB 21% with all the printing going on Doomsday draws closer.China China China just waiting for US pandemonium
Thank Biden
Obviously if inflation is 6%, interest rates of 5% won't bring inflation down. Duh.
Democrats spent thousands of billions of dollars. And only thing growing is crime and corruption.
AGAIN AND AGIAN THIS YEAR 2023YR —- > LOSS OF STOCK MARKET SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH BONDS (= DEBT) MARKET WILL BE EVEN MORE THAN 2022YR MEANS THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT MARKET'S COLLAPSE HURRICANING THE ENTRIE ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
P.S AGAIN AND AGAIN AS I'VE SAID ALREADY THAT ESP NASDAQ INDEX WILL BE DOWN TO THE RANGE OF 6500 – 6700 FROM WHERE IT IS THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT = LESS AND LESS AND LESSER INVESTMENT INTO THE TECH SECTOR + EARNINGS WILL BE DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN THROUGH WHOLE YEAR OF 2023YR INTO 2024YR AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY SINCE THE END OF DEC OF 2022YR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
NOW CAN YOU DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL FUTURES MARKETS SUCH AS CURRENCY RATE + INTEREST RATE AND THE COMMODITY MARKET? —— > THE ANSWER IS NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! < ——- THAT'S WHY MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE PRICE HIKING WILL BE GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON FOR MANY YEARS TO COME!!!!!!!!!!:) THE MATH EQUATION BETWEEN INTEREST RATE VS CURRENCY RATE VS THE COMMODITY MARKET HAS BEEN TOTALLY DESTROYED BY THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ESP FROM WALL ST + EUROPE SINCE 2006YR ——- > CAUSED 2008YR FINANCIAL SYSTEM'S DEPRESSION——- > NOW ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON IN 2023YR UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGIAN US$ + US T- DEBT ARE NO LONGER SAFE HAVEN ASSETS ANYMORE THAT WE MAY SEE A REAL US DEBT DEFAULT THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AGAIN AND AGAIN WHETHER YOU AGREE OR NOT GOLD PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE INTO 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR + OIL PRICE IS RECOVERING ITS 130$ – 140$ BB/LS THIS YEAR AGAIN AND AGAIN THE BIGGEST IMPETUS OF THE COMMODITY SUEPR CYCLE IS THE BIGGEST EVER TREMENDOUS DEBT EVERYWHERE ESP CHINA USA EUROPE AUSSIE S KOREA SWISS TAIWAN NZ CANADA + ALMOST ALL OF EM COUNTRIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE TO FIX THE FINANCIAL ENGINEERING PROBLEMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!:) ———- > ONLY SAFE HAVEN ASSETS ARE GOLD + ENERGY THAT WE WILL SEE GOLD PRICE GETTING INTO THE 3K$ – 3.5K$ RANGE THIS YEAR + OIL PRICE IS GETTING BACK TO ITS 130$ BB/LS TO 140$ BB/LS IN THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CHEAP MONEY PRICES (= INTEREST RATES) EVERYWHERE ESP FROM CHINA USA EUROPE + JAPAN + ALMOST ALL OF ECONOMIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN ———– > WHICH ONE WILL BE THE NEXT BETWEEN JUNE AND SEP OF THIS YEAR?! ———- > UBS HSBC SC BNP DEUTSCHE COMMERTZ BARCLAYS CHARLES SCHWAB BLACKSTONE WELLS FARGO? WHICH ONE WILL BE THE NEXT?!!!!!!!!!!:)
UBS's Zuercher: Look at High-Quality Duration Bonds < ——- YOU'D BETTER SELL OFF ALL OF YOUR BONDS HOLDINGS BECAUSE AGAIN AND AGIAN US FED + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS HAVE NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE THEIR INTEREST RATES INTO COMING MONTHS + YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!:)